Transparency

Reproduce our number yourself

Every input is public and every formula is below. If you get a different number, we want to hear about it: that is a bug report, not a disagreement.

The formulas

instability = clamp((2.5 − WGI_political_stability) / 5 × 100, 0, 100)
inflation   = clamp(WB_inflation_pct × 3.5, 0, 100)
conflict    = UCDP intensity (0..100)

HRI = round(0.40 × conflict + 0.35 × instability + 0.25 × inflation)

verdict = green  if HRI ≤ 33
          red    if HRI ≥ 56
          neutral otherwise

// sanctions hard-cap:
if comprehensive OFAC embargo and verdict = green → neutral

Worked example: Mali

WGI political stability (raw)	-2.491	→ instability 100
World Bank inflation, %	3.2782	→ 11
UCDP conflict intensity	65	live
HRI	63	0.40×65 + 0.35×100 + 0.25×11

Where to get the inputs

World Bank WGI: api.worldbank.org · GOV_WGI_PV.EST (CC BY 4.0)
Inflation: FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG (CC BY 4.0)
UCDP/GED: ucdp.uu.se/downloads (CC BY 4.0)
OFAC SDN: sanctionslistservice.ofac.treas.gov (public domain)
INFORM Risk: drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index (EU JRC)

Our own outputs, open

/data/snapshot.json (the full current snapshot for all countries)
/data/backtest.json (raw backtest results, including the ones unflattering to us)
/data/history.json (daily history, so you can score us over time)

What we do NOT claim

We do not claim to predict the future. Our own backtest (4,428 country-years) showed trend extrapolation was worse than assuming no change, so we removed it. The horizon gives you a calibrated uncertainty band and a historical probability of a verdict change, nothing more.

See the full track record →

Arxterra is for information only and is not investment, legal, tax or any other advice, an offer or a recommendation. Scores are computed from the listed sources; we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. You make decisions yourself. Conflict data: UCDP/GED, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0); governance & economy: World Bank; news: The GDELT Project.