Where to grow your business before the world breaks

Five data sources

The first three feed the index: stability and economy → armed conflict → the news cycle. Sanctions and disasters are kept as separate layers. We don't fold them into one number, because those weights aren't backtested.

01WB

World Bank

Government stability (WGI) and the economy: inflation, resilience. The foundation of the score.

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02UCDP

Uppsala University

UCDP, the Swedish armed-conflict database: violence events of the last 12 months per country.

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03GDELT

News background

GDELT reads world media and measures the news tone about a country: tense or calm.

04OFAC

Sanctions (US Treasury)

The OFAC SDN list: comprehensive embargoes and targeted programs. For market entry this is a go/no-go the risk score cannot see.

05INFORM

Disasters (EU JRC)

INFORM Risk: natural and human hazards, population vulnerability and the country's capacity to cope.

Where the index layers converge, that's the verdict. Where they diverge, that's the most interesting signal.

How the index works

We don't blend signals of different reliability into one number. The layers are computed separately; the verdict looks at where they point together. That convergence is the heart of the product.

Five planning horizons

From today's state to the ten-year arc. The central estimate is the same at every horizon. On our backtest that proved more accurate than guessing a trend. What the horizon changes is the width of the range and the odds the verdict flips.