Compare
Two countries side by side Pick two countries and see which is calmer at every horizon: by hard data and by the news cycle.
Afghanistan Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bermuda Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil British Virgin Islands Brunei Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cabo Verde Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Curacao Cyprus Czechia Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic DR Congo Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Eswatini Ethiopia Faroe Islands Fiji Finland France French Polynesia Gabon Gambia Georgia Germany Ghana Gibraltar Greece Greenland Grenada Guam Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Isle of Man Israel Italy Ivory Coast Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Laos Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macao Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Micronesia Moldova Monaco Mongolia Montenegro Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nauru Nepal Netherlands New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria North Korea North Macedonia Northern Mariana Islands Norway Oman Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Romania Russia Rwanda Samoa San Marino Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Sint Maarten Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa South Korea South Sudan Spain Sri Lanka St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Martin St. Vincent and the Grenadines Sudan Suriname Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Timor-Leste Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Turks and Caicos Islands Tuvalu Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela Vietnam Virgin Islands (U.S.) West Bank and Gaza Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe vs Afghanistan Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bermuda Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil British Virgin Islands Brunei Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cabo Verde Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Curacao Cyprus Czechia Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic DR Congo Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Eswatini Ethiopia Faroe Islands Fiji Finland France French Polynesia Gabon Gambia Georgia Germany Ghana Gibraltar Greece Greenland Grenada Guam Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Isle of Man Israel Italy Ivory Coast Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Laos Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macao Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Micronesia Moldova Monaco Mongolia Montenegro Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nauru Nepal Netherlands New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria North Korea North Macedonia Northern Mariana Islands Norway Oman Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Romania Russia Rwanda Samoa San Marino Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Sint Maarten Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa South Korea South Sudan Spain Sri Lanka St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Martin St. Vincent and the Grenadines Sudan Suriname Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Timor-Leste Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Turks and Caicos Islands Tuvalu Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela Vietnam Virgin Islands (U.S.) West Bank and Gaza Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
Horizon Portugal Georgia Calmer Today 15 ✓ Calm 25 ✓ Calm Portugal 3 mo 15 ✓ Calm 25 ✓ Calm Portugal 1 yr 15 ✓ Calm 25 ✓ Calm Portugal 3 yrs 15 ✓ Calm 25 ✓ Calm Portugal 10 yrs 15 ✓ Calm 25 ✓ Calm Portugal
Horizons & uncertainty
0 25 50 75 100 Today ±0 3 mo ±2* 1 yr ±3 3 yrs ±5 10 yrs ±7* Central line = today's level. On 4,428 country-years, assuming no change proved about twice as accurate as extrapolating a trend, so we don't invent one. The band is the calibrated 80% range of historical outcomes; * = horizon not covered by the backtest. How we tested this →
Horizons & uncertainty
0 25 50 75 100 Today ±0 3 mo ±2* 1 yr ±3 3 yrs ±5 10 yrs ±7* Central line = today's level. On 4,428 country-years, assuming no change proved about twice as accurate as extrapolating a trend, so we don't invent one. The band is the calibrated 80% range of historical outcomes; * = horizon not covered by the backtest. How we tested this →
Arxterra is for information only and is not investment, legal, tax or any other advice, an offer or a recommendation. Scores are computed from the listed sources; we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. You make decisions yourself. Conflict data: UCDP/GED, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0); governance & economy: World Bank; news: The GDELT Project.
