ARX·TERRA
Sign in

Digest · issue #16 · week 29

Quiet havens hold, the Caucasus is nervous

Where the hard-risk read and the news cycle diverged the most this week, and what it means for the one-year horizon.

This week the picture is calmer than a month ago: the green havens of Europe and the Balkans held their verdicts, and the news background around them is neutral-to-positive. But the news pulse (NPI) for the Caucasus turned noticeably warier while the hard data (HRI) held. That is exactly the case where the divergence between the two data layers matters more than their absolute values.

The hard data is calm, the news is loud. Historically, such windows are simply worth keeping in view.

The full breakdown of the week's moves and the list of verdict changes is below. Subscribe to receive the digest and CVG-change alerts.

Moves of the week

UkraineRisky
MoldovaCalm
GeorgiaCalm
PortugalCalm