Venezuela

408 SDN entries target specific persons and companies, not the jurisdiction. The risk is measured not by the count but by the odds of finding a listed party in your counterparty's ownership chain.

• ·Screen every counterparty against SDN and the EU consolidated list before signing
• ·Check beneficial owners: under the OFAC 50% rule a listed party's half-share taints the company
• ·Sanctions representations and a termination right in the contract
• ·Re-screen on renewal and whenever the counterparty's ownership changes

Deal economics: Screening is a per-contract operating cost: cheap next to the fines, but it must live inside the sales process, not happen ad hoc.

Rule of law -2.20 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), weak-courts threshold −0.8; worse than 99% of countries. Courts are statistically unreliable as a recovery route.

• ·First contracts: prepayment or a confirmed letter of credit
• ·An offshore arbitration clause (ICC, LCIA, SCC) plus counterparty assets the award can actually reach
• ·A local partner with a share of the result, not a commission
• ·A receivables cap per counterparty and stop-shipment on overdue payment

Deal economics: Credit terms here are an unsecured loan: price that risk into margin or move it into the cost of a letter of credit.

Regulatory quality -1.90 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), unpredictability threshold −0.8; worse than 98% of countries. Rules and licence timelines change mid-process.

• ·Local regulatory counsel before the first filing
• ·Multiples of the stated licensing time in the launch plan
• ·Do not sign leases or hires against a date the licence does not yet contain
• ·Monitor rule changes as an ongoing process, not a one-off check

Deal economics: Every month waiting for a licence is cost without revenue: put it in the cash plan, not in optimism.

Control of corruption -1.59 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), high-exposure threshold −0.8; worse than 97% of countries. Informal payments are part of the operating environment, not an exception.

• ·Anti-corruption policy and staff training before the first government contact
• ·No 'facilitators' through intermediaries: you answer for your agents' actions
• ·A log of every interaction with officials
• ·If the group touches the US or UK: FCPA/UKBA compliance is mandatory, not optional

Deal economics: FCPA fines are computed off group revenue, not the local branch: one 'facilitating' payment can cost more than this entire market.

Conflict intensity 45 of 100 on the UCDP log scale (active-violence threshold 45, watch threshold 20). This counts confirmed casualties over ~12 months, not news tone.

• ·Insurance with war-risk cover: standard policies exclude it
• ·An evacuation and communications protocol before the first trip
• ·No solo travel; routes through vetted regions
• ·Match the event map in the dossier against your own locations: violence clusters geographically

Deal economics: Security budget and insurance premiums are direct costs, and an insurer's refusal is a hidden stop-factor for hiring and travel.

INFORM Risk 5.4 of 10 (medium band 3.5 to 6.5, EU JRC): hazard exposure 7.0, coping capacity 6.2 (higher is worse).

• ·Check seasonal hazards for your regions
• ·Logistics headroom for the peak season

Deal economics: Targeted property and cargo insurance usually covers the risk without heavy infrastructure.