Country · score from open sources
Costa Rica
Latin America & Caribbean
HRI 28 of 100: higher means riskier. Calm ≤33, risky ≥56. Both rays measure risk: the longer the ray, the worse.
conflict, political instability, inflation
news sentiment for the country
Horizons & uncertainty
Central line = today's level. On 4,428 country-years, assuming no change proved about twice as accurate as extrapolating a trend, so we don't invent one. The band is the calibrated 80% range of historical outcomes; * = horizon not covered by the backtest. How we tested this →
What this means for entering
1 area needing a decision before you commitContract enforcement
Contracts are enforceable locally, so standard credit terms are workable.
Why, and what to do about it →
Rule of law 0.60 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), solid zone above +0.2; better than 72% of countries. Judicial enforcement is statistically reliable.
- Standard credit terms are workable
- Fix governing law and dispute venue in the contract
- Receivables insurance by risk appetite, not necessity
Deal economics: Contract protection costs what it does in developed markets and needs no margin premium.
Regulation & licensing
Predictable regulation: licensing timelines can go into the plan as stated.
Why, and what to do about it →
Regulatory quality 0.54 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), zone above +0.2; better than 73% of countries. Stated procedure timelines usually match reality.
- Licensing timelines can go into the plan as stated
- Standard legal support, no dedicated regulatory counsel needed
Deal economics: Regulatory risk needs no separate budget line.
Corruption exposure
Low corruption exposure: standard compliance policies suffice.
Why, and what to do about it →
Control of corruption 0.69 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), zone above +0.2; better than 75% of countries. Hidden transaction costs are not typical.
- Standard compliance policies suffice
- Ordinary counterparty KYC, no enhanced regime
Deal economics: No hidden transaction costs in the normal case.
Physical security
Active armed violence. Evacuation protocols, travel insurance and a no-unescorted-travel rule are mandatory; some insurers will decline.
Why, and what to do about it →
Conflict intensity 47 of 100 on the UCDP log scale (active-violence threshold 45, watch threshold 20). This counts confirmed casualties over ~12 months, not news tone.
- Insurance with war-risk cover: standard policies exclude it
- An evacuation and communications protocol before the first trip
- No solo travel; routes through vetted regions
- Match the event map in the dossier against your own locations: violence clusters geographically
Deal economics: Security budget and insurance premiums are direct costs, and an insurer's refusal is a hidden stop-factor for hiring and travel.
Pricing & currency
Deflation -0.1%: prices are falling and demand is deferred. Discounting stops working and customers' real debt burden grows. Be careful with credit terms.
Why, and what to do about it →
Deflation -0.1% a year (World Bank, CPI): a rare regime where buyers defer purchases and real debt burdens grow on their own.
- Careful with credit terms: the client's real debt grows by itself
- Do not build the strategy on discounts: they blend into the general price decline
- Short contracts with a re-opener clause
Deal economics: Margin compresses from the price side, not costs: test unit economics against a pessimistic price path.
Operational continuity
Medium disaster exposure: check seasonal hazards and logistics headroom.
Why, and what to do about it →
INFORM Risk 3.9 of 10 (medium band 3.5 to 6.5, EU JRC): hazard exposure 5.6, coping capacity 2.2 (higher is worse).
- Check seasonal hazards for your regions
- Logistics headroom for the peak season
Deal economics: Targeted property and cargo insurance usually covers the risk without heavy infrastructure.
Derived mechanically from the live values on this page using published scales (World Bank WGI −2.5…+2.5, INFORM 0–10, UCDP intensity). Operational guidance, not legal advice.
Why this verdict
What drives the risk
data- Conflict (UCDP)47
- Political instability (WGI)26
- Inflation0
- Travel advisories · soonn/a
Conflict data: UCDP/GED, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0).
News background
dataGDELT global news tone. Neutral background.
Doing business: governance
WGI- Rule of law0.60
- Regulatory quality0.54
- Control of corruption0.69
World Bank WGI, −2.5 to +2.5 (higher is better). Shown separately, not folded into HRI, because the weights aren't backtested.
Disasters & resilience
INFORM 2026- Hazard5.6
- Vulnerability5.0
- Lack of coping capacity2.2
INFORM Risk, European Commission JRC. A separate layer, deliberately not folded into HRI, which measures conflict, political instability and inflation.
Next steps
Once the data points to a market, the entry itself is a path, and we help with each step.
Scenario session (Custom Research)
A facilitated SWOT-style session with the School: your team's readiness and blind spots for this market.
How it works →Partners & leads on the ground
Once a market is chosen: vetted local partners and lead generation to enter without burning budget.
Talk to us →Market content & launch
Localized social and content for the new market, so the entry is visible from day one.
See how →🔒 Full access: 1 year, 3 years and 10 years
Long horizons, verdict-change alerts and briefs come with paid packages.
Arxterra is for information only and is not investment, legal, tax or any other advice, an offer or a recommendation. Scores are computed from the listed sources; we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. You make decisions yourself. Conflict data: UCDP/GED, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0); governance & economy: World Bank; news: The GDELT Project.