Country · score from open sources
Belarus
Europe & Central Asia
HRI 25 of 100: higher means riskier. Calm ≤33, risky ≥56. Both rays measure risk: the longer the ray, the worse.
conflict, political instability, inflation
news sentiment for the country
Horizons & uncertainty
Central line = today's level. On 4,428 country-years, assuming no change proved about twice as accurate as extrapolating a trend, so we don't invent one. The band is the calibrated 80% range of historical outcomes; * = horizon not covered by the backtest. How we tested this →
What this means for entering
2 areas needing a decision before you commitRight to operate
Targeted sanctions (259 SDN entries). Entry is possible, but screening counterparties and beneficial owners is mandatory, ownership chain included.
Why, and what to do about it →
259 SDN entries target specific persons and companies, not the jurisdiction. The risk is measured not by the count but by the odds of finding a listed party in your counterparty's ownership chain.
- Screen every counterparty against SDN and the EU consolidated list before signing
- Check beneficial owners: under the OFAC 50% rule a listed party's half-share taints the company
- Sanctions representations and a termination right in the contract
- Re-screen on renewal and whenever the counterparty's ownership changes
Deal economics: Screening is a per-contract operating cost: cheap next to the fines, but it must live inside the sales process, not happen ad hoc.
Contract enforcement
Weak courts: do not count on judicial recovery. Prepayment, letters of credit, offshore arbitration and a local partner with skin in the game.
Why, and what to do about it →
Rule of law -1.23 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), weak-courts threshold −0.8; worse than 88% of countries. Courts are statistically unreliable as a recovery route.
- First contracts: prepayment or a confirmed letter of credit
- An offshore arbitration clause (ICC, LCIA, SCC) plus counterparty assets the award can actually reach
- A local partner with a share of the result, not a commission
- A receivables cap per counterparty and stop-shipment on overdue payment
Deal economics: Credit terms here are an unsecured loan: price that risk into margin or move it into the cost of a letter of credit.
Regulation & licensing
Unpredictable regulation: licence timelines and rules shift. Budget multiples of the expected time and hire local regulatory counsel.
Why, and what to do about it →
Regulatory quality -1.23 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), unpredictability threshold −0.8; worse than 90% of countries. Rules and licence timelines change mid-process.
- Local regulatory counsel before the first filing
- Multiples of the stated licensing time in the launch plan
- Do not sign leases or hires against a date the licence does not yet contain
- Monitor rule changes as an ongoing process, not a one-off check
Deal economics: Every month waiting for a licence is cost without revenue: put it in the cash plan, not in optimism.
Corruption exposure
Corruption is noticeable: route procurement and government dealings through transparent procedures.
Why, and what to do about it →
Control of corruption -0.58 on the WGI scale (−2.5 to +2.5), high-exposure threshold −0.8; worse than 68% of countries. Corruption shows up in procedures and intermediaries.
- Procurement and tenders only through transparent procedures
- Due diligence on intermediaries and agents before signing
- A second-signature rule on payments to state counterparties
Deal economics: The main hidden cost is not the bribe but the middleman: a fixer's commission always surfaces in the deal price.
Physical security
No significant armed violence recorded, so standard travel policies apply.
Why, and what to do about it →
Conflict intensity 0 of 100 on the UCDP log scale: no significant armed events recorded in the period. This counts confirmed casualties, not news tone.
- Standard travel policies apply, no premiums needed
Deal economics: Physical security adds no cost of entry.
Pricing & currency
Inflation 6.6%: build in price indexation and re-price more often than annually.
Why, and what to do about it →
Inflation 6.6% a year (World Bank, CPI), watch threshold 6%: above the comfort zone but manageable with contract tools.
- Indexation in long contracts
- Re-price more often than annually
Deal economics: Price periods longer than half a year start handing margin to inflation.
Operational continuity
Low disaster exposure: redundancy can stay minimal.
Why, and what to do about it →
INFORM Risk 2.1 of 10 (low band under 3.5, EU JRC): both hazard exposure and infrastructure strain sit in the calm zone.
- Redundancy can stay minimal
Deal economics: Disaster risk needs no separate budget.
Derived mechanically from the live values on this page using published scales (World Bank WGI −2.5…+2.5, INFORM 0–10, UCDP intensity). Operational guidance, not legal advice.
Why this verdict
What drives the risk
data- Conflict (UCDP)0
- Political instability (WGI)58
- Inflation20
- Travel advisories · soonn/a
Conflict data: UCDP/GED, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0).
News background
dataGDELT global news tone. Moderately negative.
⚠ Targeted sanctions in force
OFACSpecific persons and sectors are sanctioned. Entry may be possible, but counterparty screening is mandatory.
Source: OFAC Specially Designated Nationals list (US Treasury, public domain). Informational, not legal advice.
Doing business: governance
WGI- Rule of law-1.23
- Regulatory quality-1.23
- Control of corruption-0.58
World Bank WGI, −2.5 to +2.5 (higher is better). Shown separately, not folded into HRI, because the weights aren't backtested.
Disasters & resilience
INFORM 2026- Hazard2.0
- Vulnerability1.5
- Lack of coping capacity3.2
INFORM Risk, European Commission JRC. A separate layer, deliberately not folded into HRI, which measures conflict, political instability and inflation.
Next steps
Once the data points to a market, the entry itself is a path, and we help with each step.
Scenario session (Custom Research)
A facilitated SWOT-style session with the School: your team's readiness and blind spots for this market.
How it works →Partners & leads on the ground
Once a market is chosen: vetted local partners and lead generation to enter without burning budget.
Talk to us →Market content & launch
Localized social and content for the new market, so the entry is visible from day one.
See how →🔒 Full access: 1 year, 3 years and 10 years
Long horizons, verdict-change alerts and briefs come with paid packages.
Arxterra is for information only and is not investment, legal, tax or any other advice, an offer or a recommendation. Scores are computed from the listed sources; we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. You make decisions yourself. Conflict data: UCDP/GED, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0); governance & economy: World Bank; news: The GDELT Project.